The EIA announced this morning that working gas in storage was up 52 Bcf to 3.929 Tcf. The weekly injection was 42% lower than last year (a huge +90 Bcf) and 10% below the five year average (+58 Bcf). The current storage level is now 10.4% above last year (3.558 Tcf, a difference of 371 Bcf) and 3.9% higher than the five year average (3.782 Tcf).
If this year's injection (red line) follows last year's trend (dark blue line), storage will scrape and maybe even cross the 4 Tcf level, which would be a first. Over the past seven years, the first withdrawal of the season occurred anywhere from the first week of November (once) to the first week of December (also once). The average is around the third week, but heating demands will start to level off the net injections and the red line should start to flatten before turning downward. Don't wager on my input, but I don't expect storage to cross the 4 Tcf line this year. (Hopefully not my famous last words.)