Monday, April 8, 2013

Beware of Diminished Expectations

Last week came the good news that working gas in storage level finally fell below the five year average, one year to the week after it was 60.5% above the five year average.  This is a notable achievement, no doubt, but before anyone breaks into a victory dance, keep in mind that this five year average is nowhere near the five year average in the pre-Haynesville Shale days.

Last week's storage level was 500 Bcf, or 42.2%, above the average five year trailing average from 2004 to 2008.  True, the total amount of storage capacity has expanded since then, so the relative amount of gas in storage is different, but the point is that last week's storage stats, while nice, are really not that awesome.

As wise owl once told me, beware of diminished expectations.


Anonymous said...

What is the increased usage for the same dates? Just curious how that would compare.

Robert Hutchinson said...

It is a very, very rough measure, but the average annual consumption in 2009-12 was 6.5% higher than the average consumption from 2004-08. Looking at 5 year trailing average storage levels, the period of 2009-12 was 17.1% higher than 2004-08.