Thursday, January 21, 2010

Gas in Storage Down 245 Bcf

The gas in storage numbers took another big dive last week, dropping 8.6%, or 245 Bcf, to 2.607 Tcf.  Over the past two weeks, the storage number has dropped 511 Bcf (half a Tcf).  This most recent withdrawal brings the current storage levels in line with last year and the five year average.  After spending the past six months with the current storage levels riding "above the band" of the five year range, the current storage level is nestled tightly within band and almost looks poised to pierce the bottom of the range. 

Of course looks can be deceiving, and with the relatively seasonal weather in the U.S. I doubt you will see storage drop another quarter Tcf next week. 

Among the storage regions, the biggest percentage drop was in the Producing Region, which decreased 10.6%.  Stocks there are at the five year average.  The 8.6% drop in the East Region left stocks 4% below the five year average.  The West Region saw the smallest decrease, 4.3%, and still has a gas storage surplus of 16% over the five year average.

Those regional withdrawal figures make sense when looking at the temperature map from last week:


Anonymous said...

The expected end-of-March 2010 storage level will be about 16 percent (237 Bcf) greater than the previous 5-year average for that period. Source EIA January 12.

Very poor in its forecasts…

Robert Hutchinson said...

I have to believe that the EIA's prognostications have more to do with history than the future. They do a hell of a job with the historical data, though.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you they are very competent as regards the statistics and the historical data. However their forecasts which are read and respected by many give a false image of the situation to come.
Suppose two weeks of big cold in February!!