Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Goodrich: Type Curve Updated

Goodrich Petroleum has also been on the investor presentation ciruit lately. The company is still excited about the Haynesville Shale and is putting its money where it's enthusiasm is by dedicating 65% of its capital budget, or $149.5 million, to the play. Since most of the corporate presentations have become revisions of the previous versions, I have to compare them side-by-side to see if there is any value to report. In Goodrich's presentation, I noted a few things, most noably that the company has updated its decline curves based both on results the company has experienced and market conditions.

I've pasted the new and old curves below, but you can see that pretty much all of the inputs have changed over time. Notably, the initial production numbers have changed and the assumed price of gas has decreased from $7 to $6/Mcf. Interstingly, the resulting curves are steeper. The decline in year one went from 81% to 84% and in year two from 32% to 40%. The economics didn't change all that much because the initial production was higher, but it feeds into the assumption that the Haynesville Shale wells deplete quickly.

New Curves:

Old Curves:

Goodrich also updated its production map of the Bethany Longstreet Field in Caddo and DeSoto Parishes with new results. While these results are published elsewhere on this site, I like to see these maps to keep things in geograhpic perspective.

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