Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Decline Curves

One of the big issues that we will see with the Haynesville Play as it develops is the rate at which production declines from the initial production. Watching the news and press releases, you see some eye-popping IP numbers. What you often don't see is the average production numbers three, six or nine months out. Those figures aren't nearly as sexy.

These shale wells are interesting in that they have strong initial production, but they play down quickly. A recent image from a Goodrich Petroleum presentation (below) illustrates these so called "decline curves" quite well.

Generalizations don't apply to each well, but because the production companies are drilling in the same immediate area and using the same techniques, such generalizations likely will prove fairly accurate.

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