Friday, February 5, 2016

The Hits Keep Coming: US Gas Rig Count down 17 to 104

The BHI U.S. natural gas rig count was down big this week, dropping 17 to 104.  A 14% drop in one week!  Over the past 10 weeks, the count has plummeted 88 rigs, or 46%, from what was already a record low (at least since the late 80's).  The overall count was down 48 rigs, as oil rigs declined by 31, but percentage-wise, that was only 6%.  Only six percent - it's amazing what happens when you continually reset your expectation downward.

Friday, January 29, 2016

Gas Rigs Keep Falling Away

Today's BHI natural gas rig count was down six to 121, but over the past five months, the gas rig count has dropped by 90, or 43% from levels that were already record lows (at least since the BHI count was initiated in 1991).

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Good Image

Friday, January 8, 2016

Watch the Line as End of Injection Season Trips up Storage

I know, I know, I told you I am not going to keep updating the site going forward, but I couldn't resist sharing the new year's working gas in storage chart.


Track the light blue line (2014) go through the year as the polar vortex creates a big deficit in the spring and summer.  That winter, prices spiked upwards but drifted back downwards during the year.  But as the year went along and the storage line eventually hits the gray bar signifying the end of the injection season in November, it hiccups and starts rising rapidly.  Then go back to the left side as the light blue line becomes the dark blue line (2015).  At this point, prices are dragging downward.  The dark line tracks the five year average line (gold) until it hits the gray bar in November again and then drifts upwards as the injection season goes long with the warm end of year weather.  Boom, we see the lowest gas prices in a couple of decades.  Shift back to the left and see the red line (2016) now floating way above all of the other lines.  Where it goes from here will be a major determinant of what happens to prices going forward.

That's a succinct explanation of what has been going on with storage and how it directly relates to the change in prices over the past couple of years.

Friday, January 1, 2016

U.S. Rig Count: -2 to 698

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down two this week to 698.  Oil rigs were down two to 536 while gas rigs were unchanged at 162.  By type, horizontal rigs were down five to 549, vertical rigs were up three to 89 and directional rigs were unchanged at 60.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were down one to 128, directional rigs were up one to 22 and vertical rigs were unchanged at 12.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

EIA: Gas in Storage -58 Bcf to 3.756 Tcf

The EIA reported this morning that working gas in storage was down 58 Bcf to 3.756 Tcf.  The weekly withdrawal was double last year's (-29 Bcf), but 39% lower than the five year average (-95 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 16.5% above last year (3.224 Tcf, a difference of 532 Bcf) and 13.5% larger than the five year average (3.308 Tcf, a difference of 448 Bcf).


It's Been a Gas...

As of the end of this year, I'm going to suspend active publication of haynesvilleplay.com.  Over the next few weeks (months?), I'll bring all of the stray completions, permits and rig counts current to 12/31/15 but will stop updating these on a regular basis.  The site will remain up and my email (haynesvilleplay <at> gmail <dot> com) will be active if anyone wants to check in.  I'm not going anywhere - I just won't be as visible.

It's not for a lack of interest but rather a lack of time that I have to move on. Other projects have overtaken my attention, as I'm sure regular readers have noticed.  Over the past seven and a half years, I've thoroughly enjoyed writing about the Haynesville Shale.  I've learned a lot and have met some interesting people (at least virtually).  I probably will post occasionally - I'm going to stay abreast of the market - but I just won't be publishing with any regularity and I'll leave stats maintenance to others.

A happy and prosperous new year to all and may things turn around for natural gas in the coming year(s).

Monday, December 28, 2015

EIA: Gas in Storage -32 Bcf to 3.814

Another warm week, another crappy storage report.  The EIA announced last week that working gas in storage was down only 32 Bcf to 3.814 Tcf.  The angle of the red line foreshadows a bad year coming (unless the Polar Vortex drops in for a visit)...


The weekly withdrawal was 38% below last year (-52 Bcf) and 74% lower than the five year average (-121 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 17.2% below last year (3.253 Tcf, a difference of 561 Bcf) and 12.1% below the five year average (3.403 Tcf, a difference of 411 Bcf).

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

U.S. Rig Count: -9 to 700

This week's Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down nine to 700.  Oil rigs were down three to 538 and gas rigs were down six to 162.  Since I neglected to post last week, I'll let you know that over the past two weeks, oil rigs were up 14 while gas rigs were down a whopping 23.  By type, horizontal rigs were down five last week to 554 (unchanged over two weeks), vertical rigs were down one to 86 (down five over two weeks) and directional rigs were down three to 60 (down four over two weeks).


Friday, December 18, 2015

Last Week's U.S. Rig Count: -28 to 709

Since this week's U.S. rig count comes out in a few hours, I figured I'd finally get last week's up.  The BHI U.S. rig count was down 28 to 709.  Oil rigs were down 21 to 524 and gas rigs were down seven to 185.  By type, horizontal rigs were down 15 to 554, vertical rigs were down 13 to 91 and directional rigs were unchanged at 64.  I'll post the chart this afternoon with a new batch of rig count numbers.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Jack Frost, Where Did You Go? EIA: Storage -34 Bcf to 3.846

EIA reported that working gas in storage was down only 34 Bcf last week to 3.846 Tcf.  The light withdrawal is not a great surprise to weather watchers.  The upcoming green Christmas week should continue to put pressure on gas prices for weeks (months? years?) to come.  The withdrawal last week was 44% lower than last year (-61 Bcf) and 72% below the five year average (-120 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 16.4% higher than last year (3.305 Tcf, a difference of 541 Bcf) and 9.1% above the five year average (3.524 Tcf, a difference of 322 Bcf).


Thursday, December 10, 2015

EIA: Gas in Storage -76 Bcf to 3.88 Tcf

The EIA reported this morning that working gas in storage was down 76 Bcf to 3.88 Tcf.  The weekly withdrawal was 62% greater than last year (-47 Bcf) and 17% higher than the five year average (-65 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 15.3% higher than last year (3.366 Tcf, a difference of 514 Bcf) and 6.5% above the five year average (3.644 Tcf, a difference of 236 Bcf).


Friday, December 4, 2015

U.S. Rig Count: -7 to 737

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down seven this week to 737.  Oil rigs were down 10 to 545 and gas rigs were up three to 192.  By type, horizontal rigs were unchanged at 569, vertical rigs were down five to 104 and directional rigs were down two to 64.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were up three to 143, while directional and vertical rigs were unchanged at 26 and 23, respectively.

Thursday, December 3, 2015

EIA: Gas in Storage -53 Bcf to 3.956 Tcf

Finally!  The EIA announced this morning that working gas in storage was down 53 Bcf to 3.956 Tcf.  The first withdrawal of the season was 26% greater than last year (-42 Bcf) and 10% larger than the five year average (-48 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 15.9% above last year (3.413 Tcf, a difference of 543 Bcf) and 6.7% higher than the five year average (3.709 Tcf, a difference of 247 Bcf).


Now that the storage injection season is over, it's time to reflect on the big picture.  Storage reached a record 4.009 Tcf, by far the highest level in history.  Getting down to 1.5 Tcf at the end of the injection season is likely impossible without a new ice age commencing in the next two weeks.  Unfortunately, 2.0 Tcf - which entails a 2.0 Tcf withdrawal - seems like a stretch too, especially with a warm winter predicted.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

U.S. Rig Count: -13 to 744

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down 13 this week to 744.  Given current commodity prices, expect this trend to continue.  Oil rigs were down nine to 555 and gas rigs were down four to 189.  By type, horizontal rigs were down 12 to 569, vertical rigs were up two to 109 and directional rigs were down three to 66.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were down five to 140, directional rigs were down three to 26 and vertical rigs were up four to 23.

Yipes! EIA: Gas in Storage +9 Bcf to 4.009 Tcf

The EIA reported Wednesday that working gas in storage was up 9 Bcf to a new record high 4.009 Tcf.  The weekly injection 141 Bcf (!!!) greater than the same week last year's withdrawal and 36 Bcf higher than the five year average withdrawal.  The current storage level is now 16.0% higher than last year (3.455 Tcf, a difference of 554 Bcf) and 6.7% above the five year average (3.757 Tcf, a difference of 252 Bcf).


Tuesday, November 24, 2015

2014 U.S. Natural Gas Proved Reserves Up 9.8% to 388.8 Tcf

The EIA announced its annual assessment of proved reserves of oil and gas in the U.S. for year end 2014  It concluded that proved natural gas reserves had increased 34.8 Tcf to 338.8 Tcf, an increase of 9.8%.  The Haynesville Shale is the fifth largest natural gas field (using 2013 PR numbers), while the Marcellus Shale is the largest.  With proved reserve increases, West Virginia became the fourth largest state in terms of proved reserves this year, surpassed only by Texas, Pennsylvania and Oklahoma).

A 10% increase in proved reserves seems high given the low price of gas, but it is likely a nod to technological advances and improved understanding of how to tap gas from existing fields.  This has become evident in the Haynesville as companies have fine tuned their production approach to greatly increase expected ultimate recoveries.  The official definition of proved reserves:
"Proved reserves are estimated volumes of hydrocarbon resources that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable under existing economic and operating conditions. Reserves estimates change from year to year as new discoveries are made, as existing fields are more thoroughly appraised, as existing reserves are produced, and as prices and technologies change."

Friday, November 20, 2015

U.S. Rig Count: -10 to 757

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down 10 this week to 757.  Oil rigs were down ten to 564, while gas rigs were unchanged at 193.  By type, horizontal rigs were down six to 581, vertical rigs were down one to 107 and directional rigs were down three to 69.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were up two to 145, directional rigs were down two to 29 and vertical rigs were unchanged at 19.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

EIA: Gas in Storage +15 Bcf to 4.000 Tcf

Boom!  The EIA reported this morning that working gas in storage was up 15 Bcf to another new record high of 4.0 Tcf.  The weekly injection was 24 Bcf higher than last year (-9 Bcf) and 27 Bcf higher than the five year average (-12 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 11.2% above last year (3.596, a difference of 404 Bcf) and 5.5% higher than the five year average (3.793 Tcf, a difference of 207 Bcf).


This week's report proves, yet again, that I'm not much of a prognosticator.  I thought storage wouldn't hit 4 Tcf.  Powered by wishful thinking, I stuck to my guns last week in the face of a higher than expected injection.  In any case, save the coming of a new ice age, pressure on storage at the end of injection season looks to be the norm for years to come.  With El Nino still in place, it looks to be a long winter for natural gas.  Maybe I should make a strong negative prediction - I'm not exactly on a winning streak these days...

Friday, November 13, 2015

U.S. Rig Count: -4 to 767

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down four this week to 767.  Oil rigs were up two to 574, while gas rigs were down six to 193.  By type, horizontal rigs were up two to 587, vertical rigs were up three to 108 and directional rigs were down nine to 72.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were down two to 143, directional rigs were down three to 31 and vertical rigs were down one to 19.

EIA: Gas in Storage +49 Bcf to 3.978 Tcf

Oh, El Nino!  A new record high:  the EIA reported this morning that working gas in storage was up 49 Bcf to 3.978 Tcf.  It looks to be raging towards 4 Tcf, endangering my fateful prediction from last week that it would not break through the mystical 4.  But I'm going to stick with last week's prediction.

The weekly injection was 4% higher than last year (+47 Bcf) but more than double the five year average (+23 Bcf).  The current storage level is now 10.3% higher than last year (3.605 Tcf, a difference of 373 Bcf) and 4.5% above the five year average (3.805 Tcf, a difference of 373 Bcf).


Tuesday, November 10, 2015

U.S. Rig Count: -4 to 771

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down four last week to 771.  Oil rigs were down six to 572 and gas rigs were up two to 199.  By type, horizontal rigs were up eight to 585, vertical rigs were down seven to 105 and directional rigs were down five to 81.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were down one to 145, directional rigs were unchanged at 34 and vertical rigs were up three to 20.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

EIA: Gas in Storage +52 Bcf to 3.929 Tcf

The EIA announced this morning that working gas in storage was up 52 Bcf to 3.929 Tcf.  The weekly injection was 42% lower than last year (a huge +90 Bcf) and 10% below the five year average (+58  Bcf).  The current storage level is now 10.4% above last year (3.558 Tcf, a difference of 371 Bcf) and 3.9% higher than the five year average (3.782 Tcf).


If this year's injection (red line) follows last year's trend (dark blue line), storage will scrape and maybe even cross the 4 Tcf level, which would be a first.  Over the past seven years, the first withdrawal of the season occurred anywhere from the first week of November (once) to the first week of December (also once).  The average is around the third week, but heating demands will start to level off the net injections and the red line should start to flatten before turning downward.  Don't wager on my input, but I don't expect storage to cross the 4 Tcf line this year.  (Hopefully not my famous last words.)

Friday, October 30, 2015

EXCO Q3 Report

As you can probably tell from my spotty posting performance over the past month (or six), I've gotten busy with other projects.  I've let a lot of Haynesville material slip between the cracks (or pile up on my desk and computer).  Instead of stockpiling it and waiting for time to make thoughtful comments on the material, I'm going to try to just put it out there without embellishment and force you, my faithful readers, do all the work.  Sorry!

In that spirit, here is the link to the recent EXCO quarterly slides.  There's lots of good stuff about the Haynesville Shale.

U.S. Rig Count: -12 to 775

The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count was down 12 this week to 775.  Oil rigs were down 16 to 578 and gas rigs were up four to 197.  By type, horizontal rigs were down 14 to 577, vertical rigs were up three to 112 and directional rigs were down one to 86.  Among gas rigs, horizontal rigs were up three to 146, directional rigs were down one to 34 and vertical rigs were up two to 17.